'Tis the season start! III: Premiership

Hello everybody!

Part 3 of our whistle-stop tour of Western European football takes us to a land of warm beer and Sky Sports: to a league where Greed is Good(TM) and where foreign ownership, ranging from the robber baron clearing a land of its natural resources and leaving millions of his fellow countrymen poverty-stricken (step forward Abramovich), to the human rights violator torturing and murdering his enemies (step forward Shinawatra) and on to various assorted American tycoons looking to make a fast buck (step forward Glazer, Hicks & Gillett, Lerner and, quite possibly sometime into the future, Kroenke), is rife. Yes, welcome to England. (By the way, I hasten to point that I’m not trying to get at Thais, Russians or Americans in general, or to portray England as some kind of morally superior nation: the story of Ken Bates’ management of Leeds United, and indeed Peter Risdale’s before that, has demonstrated that England has plenty of crooks itself.)

Anyway, that’s the last of my faintly leftist political rantings (honest!), and I will turn instead to discussing the football for the coming season, starting with the champions Manchester United. Despite winning last year’s crown, Alex Ferguson will probably be the first to admit that that particular gong occurred as much due to the chaos surrounding Chelsea as his own side’s merits, and that his squad was far from complete. To that end, Ferguson has mercifully brought to an end the tedious, year-long Owen Hargreaves transfer saga and (having splurged £18m the previous summer on the poor man’s Andrea Pirlo) finally got the midfield destroyer he has craved since the departure of a certain Sunderland boss (though this particular destroyer also came at a grotesquely inflated price, £17m, and isn’t a patch on the man he really wanted, Rino Gattuso.) With Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes both now over 30, Ferguson also did the sensible thing and signed up two young replacements (in the form of Nani and Anderson, respectively.) At the time of writing, the signing of Carlos Tevez hadn’t yet been confirmed, but looks likely to before the season starts, confirming United’s status as the strongest squad in the country. That’s not to say that United don’t have their problems, though. For all the hype about United’s attacking signings, they still lack an obvious centre-forward/striker, something that Tevez’s arrival is unlikely to remedy; United may be able to get away with this now (with Chelsea being chaotically run, and with Liverpool & Arsenal not the finished article) but you wonder how long they can get away with having too many Chiefs and not enough Indians. United were also incredibly fortunate with injuries last season, and there are certain players that United can’t afford to lose; though Nani and Anderson have undoubted potential, they have played a combined total of less than 80 games in the Portuguese league (which, though not a bad league, is hardly La Liga or Serie A) and are not sufficiently experienced to replace Giggs and Scholes adequately if one (or both) of those players gets injured. And there is certainly no replacement for the one player in the United side that they can’t afford to lose (no prizes for guessing that said player is Cristiano Ronaldo, who was comfortably the best player in the league last year.) Last season’s injuries at the back, meanwhile, showed that the United defence is too dependent on Vidić being fit and in form.

Chelsea (despite being run in a manner almost as shambolic as that of Real Madrid) remain the side best placed to challenge them, particularly as they have addressed a number of the positions that needed sorting out from last year (that is, getting another centre-back as cover for Terry and Ricardo Carvalho, in the form of Tal Ben-Haim; another powerful centre-forward to reduce their reliance on Didier Drogba, in the form of Claudio Pizarro; and a left –winger to replace the now surely-departing Arjen Robben, in the form of the excellent Florent Malouda, who, as a Liverpool fan, is very much the one that got away.) However, those changes are, to some extent, cosmetic and fail to disguise what is something of a lop-sided squad; Chelsea have a glut of destroyers in midfield (see the likes of Makélélé and Lassana Diarra) and powerful box-to-box midfielders (Lampard, Essien, Mikel and now Sidwell) and a couple of good goalkeepers (in the form of Petr Čech and Carlo Cudicini), but, given Shevchenko’s recent malaise, have only one forward that regularly scores goals (in the form of Drogba, and the arrival of Pizarro certainly isn’t going to change that greatly), currently only one fully-fit full-back on each side of the pitch (Cole on the left, Johnson on the right), and, given Mourinho’s perpetual distrust of flair, will probably have only 2 wingers in the whole squad (Malouda on the left, Wright-Phillips on the right.) These problems could well be compounded if Chelsea have another glut of injuries like those of last season, while the current cease-fire between Mourinho and the club’s hierarchy still seems fragile to me (Mourinho’s relationship with new director of football Avram Grant is rumoured to be as frosty as that with Frank Arnesen, and with various different people trying to have their say in club affairs, don’t be surprised if those rumours about Mourinho’s departure start circulating again.)

And so on to the other two members of the so-called “Big Four”, starting with my own team, Liverpool, who are probably the most likely side out of the rest of the chasing pack to challenge Chelsea and United’s hegemony, though are still unlikely to win the league. Benítez has taken advantage of the new money made available by the club’s new ownership to try and spruce up Liverpool’s lacklustre attack, though doubts still persist about the goalscoring capabilities of his most expensive purchase, Fernando Torres: were his goal stats the result of playing in a comically inept Atlético de Madrid side, or is he simply not the natural finisher that Liverpool require? And are there any grounds to believe that his form will substantially improve at Liverpool? At the very least, his pace and skill on the ball aren’t in question, which might bring a welcome change in approach when it comes to Liverpool’s build-up play (instead of lumping the ball in the general direction of Crouch, Kuyt and Voronin, the midfield might play the ball on the ground, as they’re arguably capable of doing, and look to play good through balls rather than aimless punts.) Liverpool’s other attacking signings are, thankfully, less questionable: Babel, though still raw, offers pace, directness and a fair number of goals, while Benayoun may flourish in a side that has the solidity needed for him to play his natural game (while his creativity should make Liverpool’s approach play less predictable.) Add to that a sound goalkeeper, a fairly watertight defence (with the Agger-Carragher partnership one of the best in the league) and one of the best central midfields in the league (with Gerrard, Xabi Alonso and Mascherano all experienced international midfielders) and you have a side, as Paul Doyle says, that could win the league, but will probably just fall short (though the gap will surely be less than last year); with Chelsea’s early season injury troubles, they may just creep into 2nd place, but 3rd is, again, probably more likely.

The hardest of the Big Four to predict is arguably Arsenal, given that their season could end with anything from triumph to disaster. As my learned Arsenal-supporting friend Tyler Duffy (aka BillEShears on the GU Football Weekly blog) points out, the loss of Henry has been rather overblown; however, much as in Liverpool’s case, it’s difficult to see them scoring enough goals, either from midfield (Cesc, Rosický and Hleb just don’t score enough, particularly as the latter two are regularly shoehorned into wing positions which don’t suit them) or up front (particularly if Van Persie is out for the early part of the season, which places a lot of pressure on Eduardo Da Silva, a man with plenty of talent but who is, as yet, unproven in the Premier League.) Arsenal’s youngsters (as demonstrated by their thrilling run to the League Cup final) are gifted, but of them, only Denilson and Diaby (two holding midfielders) are likely to start many games next year (which will at least add steel to the Arsenal midfield to compliment the flair.) The defence (with Bakary Sagna) will also be stronger this year. However, the biggest threat to Arsenal’s challenge will be the air of uncertainty around the club, in particular the situation surrounding Arsène Wenger’s future (given that his contract at the club expires in 2008), not to mention the lingering possibility of a takeover (with Stan Kroenke being heavily linked with a takeover) and the fact that, even with Henry gone, some senior Arsenal players (notably William Gallas) still see fit to undermine the manager’s authority. Ultimately, it will be this uncertainty that costs Arsenal the league, though they should still beat Spurs to 4th place (particularly as Spurs are still too easy to dominate in midfield, with Zokora, Jenas and Tainio not providing enough steel in midfield, and with a still unresolved left side problem; in midfield, Malbranque has been forced to play in an unfamiliar and unsuitable left-wing role, while neither Lee Young-pyo nor Benoît Assou-Ekotto are good enough at left-back.)

Elsewhere, in the race for the UEFA Cup, the most likely contenders are Everton (despite Moyes’ current left-back fetish, they have spent wisely enough to secure another season of European football) and Blackburn (a good combination of flair and force, particularly given that they’ve managed to keep hold of Pedersen, Bentley and McCarthy); West Ham have spent big, but the egos in the squad mean there is always the lingering threat of catastrophe, Newcastle will have more grit about them (though how many games Barton will miss through suspension is a moot point) as well as a competent goalscorer in Viduka, but even Big Sam’s famous organisational skills will struggle to remedy Newcastle’s defensive leakiness (OK, Bramble might be gone, but a defence marshalled by David Rozehnal is surely still asking for trouble, no?), while Portsmouth’s squad might not have enough quality (particularly up front) to compete for a European place, and Man City’s spending spree might not be enough to qualify them for the UEFA Cup just yet (particularly if Bianchi turns out, as many Italian observers predict, to be a one season wonder; the arrival of Valeri Bojinov looks mouth-watering, though.)

As for the relegation battle, two of those places seem almost set in stone before the season even starts, not least that of Derby (who were promoted against the odds through the play-offs, and, despite having one of the brightest young managers in the country, possess a squad that’s desperately low on quality, particularly up front, given their reliance on Earnshaw for goals.) Birmingham, too, look set for a swift return, given that they only just edged out Derby for automatic promotion last year, and who were too dependent on Arsenal loanees (such as Larsson and Bendtner, as well as now permanently-signed Fabrice Muamba); in addition, their signings (in particular Olivier Kapo and Stuart Parnaby) have a whiff of desperation about them. However, Sunderland should just about survive, given Keane’s presence as manager and their recent £7m capture of Hearts’ excellent international keeper, Craig Gordon (though, given their relative lack of transfer market activity, Sunderland’s fans may be made to sweat.) Bolton (especially if Anelka leaves), Middlesbrough (especially if Yakubu leaves) and Fulham all look like they might struggle, but will probably (just about) beat the drop. Instead, the most likely side to be joining Birmingham and Derby in the relegation places is Wigan: given that they were rather fortunate not to go down last year, not to mention the fact that their talented young manager of last year has been replaced by a bungling clown, and that they have had an insane transfer market policy this summer of selling their best players (with Leighton Baines going to Everton and Arjan de Zeeuw retired) and bringing in rejects from other clubs (Wigan fans must be having nightmares about Titus Bramble’s debut), the season ahead looks pretty bleak for Wigan.

Well, that’s all for now. Here are the predictions:

• Champions – Manchester United (again taking advantage of the shortcomings of the other sides, though it could all come unhinged if Cristiano Ronaldo gets injured.)

• Runner-up – Chelsea (early season injuries and behind-the scenes infighting to cost them the title.)

• Champions League qualifying spots – Liverpool, Arsenal (in that order: not enough goals in either side.)

• UEFA Cup spots – Tottenham, Everton, Blackburn (as usual, the latter two may be affected by the Cup competitions)

• Relegation – Birmingham, Wigan, Derby (in that order.)

See you later, folks; given that La Liga and Serie A don’t yet start until the 26th of August, I’m going to take a well-earned break from blogging duties (I’ll start by first of all watching the Villa-Liverpool game in a pub on Saturday) until some time late next week (I haven’t decided which of the two leagues I’m going to preview first; I’ll leave you folks to speculate on that one.) In the meantime, enjoy the Prem wherever you’re watching it.

Liam