Hello all!
And welcome to Part Two of my five-part mini-series previewing the upcoming season in Europe. This 2nd edition takes us on to what was possibly the most exciting league in Europe last year, the Bundesliga (cue thousands of English football fans rubbing their eyes in disbelief.)
Inevitably, when it comes to any preview of an impending Bundesliga season, we will start by shining our limelight on the club appropriately dubbed “FC Hollywood” (or Bayern München, to give them their official name.) This summer, following one of Bayern’s worst seasons in recent memory (missing out on the Champions League and having to settle for the unsatisfying consolation of the UEFA Cup, a competition that has frequently been derided by the likes of Hoeneß, Rummenigge and Beckenbauer as a competition for “losers”), Bayern’s traditional prudence in the transfer market has been abandoned in an attempt to recapture past glories (presumably, it was all well and good being also-rans in European competition, but being outshone by Stuttgart, Werder Bremen and, in particular, perennial bridesmaids Schalke must have really stung.) The financial muscle that one suspected that Bayern always really had was flexed to considerable effect, with a completely new strike partnership (Luca Toni from Fiorentina and Miroslav Klose, who was finally captured from Werder Bremen following high-profile, Cashley-esque flirtations with Bayern directors in a Munich hotel several months ago), and a shiny new winger (in the form of the brilliant Franck Ribéry from Marseille), though much of this outlay was financed by the sale of Owen Hargreaves (at a vastly inflated price) to Manchester United. Add to these three players a number of less high-profile, but nonetheless impressive, signings (including Jose Ernesto Sosa, one of the stars of Estudiantes’ shock Apertura victory last year, new German international Jan Schlaudraff from relegated Alemannia Aachen, and fellow German international Marcell Jansen from also relegated Mönchengladbach) and Bayern’s reputation as having the strongest squad in the land is surely restored.
That’s not to say that Bayern will have things all their own way, of course, particularly as last season’s three main title challengers are virtually unchanged. Bayern’s main rivals this year are likely to be Werder Bremen, who managed to replace the departing Klose with Carlos Alberto from MSI-owned Corinthians (apparently, the deal ran altogether a lot smoother than the Tevez transfer to Manchester United.) Crucially, though, Werder managed to retain the likes of Diego (who had something of a renaissance at Werder last year, having made little impact at previous club Porto) and Torsten Frings; if they don’t get too distracted by the Champions League (for which they will surely qualify, given that they face Domžale or Dinamo Žagreb), I can see them making a real push for the league this year. However, despite their status as German champions, a title tilt from Stuttgart is less likely; true, they may have held on to most of the talented young squad that won them the league last year (with a few new faces added, including Zaragoza’s Ewerthon and Hertha’s Bastürk to name but two), but the loss of talismanic goalkeeper and captain Timo Hildebrand to Valencia is a massive loss. Besides, Stuttgart’s title push last year benefited from the element of surprise; no-one expected Stuttgart to win the title until the last couple of weeks, when a Schalke defeat at rivals Dortmund in the penultimate round of fixtures allowed Stuttgart to claim top spot. There’s likely to be a lot more by way of media focus on Stuttgart this year, so the title looks doubtful (though don’t be surprised if they claim a Champions League spot again.) As for Schalke, despite coming agonisingly close to winning the league last year, one suspects that, with Bayern out of the picture that year, there will never be a better chance for them to win the title; with Bayern going on a spending spree this summer, and with the squad of Werder being stronger than Schalke’s (Stuttgart’s squad is quite possibly stronger, too), it’s tempting to think that a Champions League spot is the best Schalke can hope for (as ever with Schalke, though, it’s likely to be their psychological shortcomings that really prove to be their undoing.)
As for the rest of the League, Borussia Dortmund (after a few years in the doledrums, with debts of around €100m at one point and the subsequent, inevitable sales of star players) may finally have a squad capable of qualifying for Europe, with an already talented squad (particularly up front, given that they can call upon strikers like Alex Frei and Ebi Smolarek) reinforced by some astute signings (including the star of Karlsruhe’s promotion last season, Italo-German playmaker Giovanni Federico), while the loss of key defender Christoph Metzelder to Real Madrid has been somewhat compensated for by the arrival of the ageing, but still able, Robert Kovač. Meanwhile, at the time of writing, Hamburg had still managed to keep hold of talented Dutch international Rafael Van der Vaart; if they can keep hold of him for an entire season, a UEFA Cup slot should be theirs. The prospects for Bayer Leverkusen (last year’s 5th placed side) for the season ahead are much harder to call, though; a number of high-profile players have departed (the most damaging of which is arguably that of Brazilian centre-back Juan to Roma), but, on the flip side, last year’s top Bundesliga marksman, Theofanis Gekas, has arrived from Bochum. My view is that Bayer could still qualify for a UEFA Cup slot if Gekas settles quickly and strikes up a good partnership with young German international Stefan Kießling, and if the supply line to the forwards is good (which will depend on the form of the likes of the ageing Bernd Schneider and Paul Freier, and the much younger Swiss winger Tranquillo Barnetta.) Another good bet for a UEFA Cup position could be Nürnberg (a fast improving side, with a smart manager and some similarly astute purchases, not least that of Angelos Haristeas), though Hannover 96, despite their new German international forward partnership of Benny Lauth and Mike Hanke, may be more of an outside bet.
In terms of the relegation battle, it’s always tempting (just in the Bundesliga as in any other league) to view the newly-promoted sides as relegation candidates (and, indeed, in the case of Hansa Rostock, having lost Gledson to Stuttgart and Mathias Schober to Schalke, it’s difficult to see them surviving.) However, there are a number of other sides who could be involved in the relegation battle this year, one of which will surely be the now Gekas-less Bochum, whose squad (without Gekas, but also playmaker Zvjezdan Misimović, who has joined Nürnberg, and Jaroslav Drobny, who has joined Hertha Berlin) looks short on quality. Also likely to struggle are Eintracht Frankfurt (who only just avoided the drop last year) and Energie Cottbus (who lost both their top scorer, Vlad Munteanu, and fellow Romanian, Sergiu Radu, to Wolfsburg this summer, and may thus struggle to score goals this year.) By contrast, Duisburg look to have spent sufficiently (and, indeed, wisely enough) to suggest that they may stay up, while Karlsruhe ran away with Bundesliga 2 last year, and their attacking style brings to mind the likes of the surpise team of 2005/06, Mainz, so I wouldn’t be surpised to see them at least staying up, even without Federico (though I’m not expecting any more than that.)
OK, that’s all for now, folks. Before I go, it’s time to put my money where my mouth is and make my season predictions (even though last weekend’s Ligue Un results, with Lyon beating Auxerre comfortably and Marseille labouring to a bore draw against newly-promoted Strasbourg, suggest I might not be all that good at it.) Anyway, here they are:
• Champions – Bayern München (if Ribéry, Klose and Toni settle quickly, there will be no living with them.)
• Runners-up (and automatic Champions League place) – Werder Bremen (will run Bayern close, but European distractions will probably cost them, and for Carlos Alberto to adequately replace Klose is asking a lot.)
• Other Champions League slot – Stuttgart (haven’t strengthened well enough to compete with Bayern or Bremen, but a talented young squad should still be good value for a Champions League slot.)
• UEFA Cup – Schalke (always the bridesmaid), Hamburg and Borussia Dortmund, in that order (though Dortmund’s place may depend on the outcome of the Cup.)
• Relegation – Energie Cottbus, Bochum, Hansa Rostock (though Eintracht Frankfurt could well go down in Cottbus’ stead; without Gekas and Misimović, Bochum should be doomed, though.)
Right, so that’s the Bundesliga covered; it just leaves me to say that there will a Premiership preview going out on Friday at the very latest (well, it would be a bit out of order if it went out after the Sunderland v Spurs game, wouldn’t it?)
Later everyone,
Liam
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