'Tis the season start! IV: La Liga

Hello everyone!

And welcome back after an entertaining weekend’s football (even Ligue Un had goals!); last weekend was also very satisfying from a personal perspective, with Gerrard bailing us out yet again and United showing a heartening inability to break down a half-decent defence.

Of course, one of the less illuminating fixtures from the weekend just gone was Sevilla’s 1-0 victory over Real Madrid in the first leg of the Spanish Supercopa, but that does lead us on neatly to the subject of Part 4 of this series: the upcoming season in La Liga (which is still 2 weeks away, mind, but with no competitive football in the intervening weeks, now is as good a time as any to preview the season.) As with any Spanish championship, the build-up to this year’s competition has been dominated by Real and Barcelona, with both clubs being active over the summer. The close season at Real Madrid has been particularly turbulent; despite miraculously leading Real to the La Liga title last year (despite having played truly shambolic football for most of the campaign), head honcho Ramon Calderón deemed Fabio Capello’s brand of defensive football to not be in keeping with the Merengues’ “artistic heritage” (as he put it), and Don Fabio was rewarded with the sack. In his stead came Getafe boss Bernd Schuster (apparently Calderón’s first choice as boss for last season, though hardly one famed for his attacking instincts, either at Levante or Getafe) and a raft of new signings; fellow countryman Christoph Metzelder was the first to arrive (on a free transfer from Borussia Dortmund), and he has since been followed by Pepe (€30m, from Porto), Soldado (returning from a loan spell at Osasuna), Saviola (arriving on a free from arch-rivals Barcelona) and Jerzy Dudek (arriving on a free from Liverpool.) In the past week Real have been going Dutch, with Drenthe (€13m, from Feyenoord) and Sneijder (€25m, from Ajax) arriving to add some much-needed width to the side (Sneijder can play on either wing, while Drenthe may well ultimately be re-deployed as a left-back to replace Roberto Carlos, having previously undergone a successful conversion to the left-wing position at Feyenoord), while there is still every chance of Arjen Robben arriving from Chelsea before the transfer window shuts. However, doubts persist about a squad that continues to look unbalanced; Real have a glut of players down the centre of the pitch (Cannavaro, Pepe, Metzelder and Sergio Ramos at centre-back, though the latter is admittedly a converted right-back, while Metzelder has on occasion played on the right as well; Diarra, Emerson and Gago in central midfield; and a huge number of centre-forwards, with Raúl, Van Nistelrooy, Saviola, Baptista, Higuaín, Soldado, Cassano, Guti and Robinho all competing for just two forward positions, though Cassano looks almost certain to join Sampdoria on loan, while Real are entertaining offers for Baptista) but an alarming lack of wide players, even with the recent Dutch arrivals (the right midfield berth may recently have been filled by Sneijder, but there is no recognisable replacement in the squad should he get injured, while Cicinho’s likely departure to Roma leaves the ageing Salgado and the inexperienced Miguel Torres as the squad’s only right-backs; meanwhile, the failure to secure the signature of Robben so far may mean playing Drenthe on the left-side of midfield, with Marcelo playing at left-back, with there being no cover for either position.) The lack of a ball-playing central midfielder who can dictate the rhythm of Real’s play has led to Schuster’s pursuit of the likes of Kaká, Cesc and Ballack (all of which look likely to be unsuccessful), while questions can legitimately be asked about the actual signings Real have made: Drenthe has potential but only a year’s worth of experience in the Eredivisie, Saviola continuously flattered to deceive (certainly in goalscoring terms) at Barça (who were ultimately quite happy to let him go), Dudek will only warm the bench at the Bernabéu, and of Real’s defensive signings, only Pepe has impressed in pre-season (though it would be foolish to write off an international player like Metzelder just yet.) Having said all that, if Van Nistelrooy continues to score frequently, if Sneijder can prove he is ready for the big leagues (having been content to be a big fish in the small Eredivisie pond up to now), if Robben arrives to provide the width on the left that they currently have on the right, and if Iker Casillas can continue to perform miracles in the Real goal, they will always have a chance of winning the league again this year.

A better bet, however, may be their eternal rivals and last year’s runners-up, Barcelona. The failure to secure a third straight league crown (not to mention being pipped by their bitter rivals) clearly stung Barça, who have bought big, not least in the form of Thierry Henry (whose tedious transfer saga has finally been resolved, with his arrival from Arsenal for €24m.) His arrival adds to an already glittering array of attacking talent (not only Eto’o, Ronaldinho and Messi, but also the burgeoning talents of Mexican youngster Giovani Dos Santos and Serbian-Spanish youngster Bojan Krkić); however, any suggestions that Barcelona may have been about to embark on their own ill-fated galáctico project have surely been quashed by their other summer signings, including a holding midfielder (Yaya Touré, a €8.8m bargain from Monaco), a left back (Éric Abidal, €14.8m from Lyon) and a centre-back (Gabriel Milito, €19.9m from Zaragoza.) These re-inforcements, plus a burning desire to make up for their failure to win any major trophies last year, should make Barça favourites not only for the league, but also for the Champions league, too.

However, concerns that this year’s Spanish title race may degenerate into a Barça v Real duel thankfully look like being unfounded, with both Sevilla and Valencia looking like being title challengers again. Valencia (who would surely have mounted a more significant title challenge had it not been for an injury list of Chelsea-esque proportions) have not only managed to keep hold of the superb David Villa, but have also strengthened their already impressive squad well (not least up front, where beanpole Serbian striker Nikola Žigić has arrived from Racing Santander to partner Villa, with Arizmendi, a new arrival from Deportivo, providing back-up.) If Villa stays for the whole season (as now seems likely), and if their squad stays fit (particularly left-winger Vicente, who has had a terrible time with injuries over the last 2-3 years), they should be major contenders. Sevilla have also managed to keep hold of all of their star players from last year (although the future of terrific all-action right-back Dani Alves remains in doubt), not to mention (perhaps more importantly) their coach, Juande Ramos (one of La Liga’s brightest young managers.) Sevilla have also bought well (particularly in getting hold of the likes of Seydou Keita from Lens and Tom de Mul, who was one of the stars of Belgium’s run to the semi-finals of the Under-21 European Championship), while the likes of Jesús Navas and Fredi Kanouté remain, so a title tilt remains a possibility (at least if Alves is still at the club when the transfer window closes.)

In terms of the UEFA Cup positions, it remains to be seen how Villarreal and Zaragoza cope without Forlán and Gabi Milito respectively, meaning that perennial losers Atlético de Madrid surely ought to be able to claim one of the UEFA Cup spots, even without Torres (particularly as his replacement is Forlán himself, not only providing Atléti with one of La Liga’s top marksmen, but also weakening one of their main competitors in the race for Europe); Raúl García also looks like a sound buy. Atléti being Atléti, though, their biggest nemesis will be themselves. Zaragoza also look good for a UEFA Cup spot, despite losing Gabi Milito, particularly as their other Milito, Diego, remains and will be aided up front by Ricardo Oliveira (who, despite a disastrous stint with Milan last year, may yet rehabilitate himself in La Liga.) The loss of Gabi Milito will also be softened by the arrivals of Roberto Ayala and Paco Pavón (from Valencia via Villarreal, and Real Madrid respectively.) Villarreal may struggle, though, given that Forlán’s replacement is Jon Dahl Tomasson from Stuttgart (who is more goal creator than goalscorer.) Espanyol (reinforced by Valdo’s arrival from Osasuna) and Osasuna (aided up front by the arrivals of Walter Pandiani and Javier Portillo, but who may ultimately be hurt by the losses of Raúl García, Valdo and Soldado) may also be good outside bets for Europe.

Finally, onto the relegation battle; of the newly-promoted sides, Murcia look the most likely to consolidate their position in the top division, given that they have bought better than either Almería or Valladolid (the purchases of Real Madrid’s Uruguayan hard man, Pablo García, and Valencia left-winger Mario Regueiro, also an Uruguayan, look particularly astute.) By contrast, Almería and Valladolid don’t look to have strengthened sufficiently to avoid the drop. Elsewhere, Athletic Bilbao (who, contrary to popular belief, tend to struggle these days largely because of their meagre spending power, not their Basque-only selection policy), Recreativo de Huelva (plus former Liverpool “bright young things” Anthony Le Tallec and Florent Sinama-Pongolle, but minus coach Marcelino and key players Santi Cazorla & Ikechukwu Uche) and Deportivo La Coruña (who have lost some key players which haven’t been adequately replaced, notably Joan Capdevila to Villarreal and Jorge Andrade to Juventus) could all struggle against the drop this year. However, my tip to be joining Almería and Valladolid in La Segunda División for 2008/09 would be Levante, who were lucky to avoid relegation last year and who will be without Salva Ballesta and Olivier Kapo for the coming season (while new arrivals like Savio and Shota Arveladze are both over 30 and could struggle to keep Levante up.)

Well, that’s all for another week, folks. I’ll be back at the same time next week for the final installment in the series (i.e. my Serie A preview); in the meantime, to keep you amused for the next seven days, here are my rubbish predictions for the coming La Liga season:

• Champions – Barcelona (Touré should give the midfield steel, the defence looks stronger, while the attack should again be breathtaking, provided all the egos are kept in check; Dos Santos and Krkić could be explosive, too.)

• Runners-up (and automatic Champions League place) – Valencia (possibly going with my heart over my head here, but the squad looks stronger and more balanced than Real Madrid’s, while Žigić could potentially be a brilliant partner for David Villa; their title challenge may ultimately be undone by their traditionally conservative tactics, though.)

• Champions League spots – Real Madrid (injuries in certain areas could be disastrous for them, while they can sometimes be a bit too reliant on Casillas bailing out the defence, not to mention their reliance on Van Nistelrooy’s goals), Sevilla (have the squad to challenge, but need to shake off that nasty draw habit from last season.)

• UEFA Cup spots – Atlético de Madrid (the weakness of the rest of the field surely means that even Atlético can’t blow this opportunity), Zaragoza (can still count on Diego Milito’s goals), Espanyol (though their place may depend on the outcome of the Copa del Rey.)

• Relegation – Levante, Valladolid, Almería (in that order.)