Euro trippin'

Hello folks!

Well, another round of Euro 2008 qualifiers is upon us. But rather than do as much of the myopic English press seem to have done (i.e. pour over the minutiae of what will surely be another stultifyingly boring but comfortably attained 1-0 win for England, as critiqued excellently here), I would prefer to talk about a far more compelling group, one with genuine intrigue and excitement. That is, of course, Group B, where those young Scottish upstarts have managed to stay in contention for a place in Austria/Switzerland (so much so that they can now, apparently, “taste the Toblerone”), climbing to the top of the group and threatening to put one of the two World Cup finalists (Italy and France) out of the tournament. While there has inevitably been a great deal of bluster in the press on both sides of the border, my suspicion is that it will ultimately end in disappointment. For one thing, the run-in for Scotland is by some distance the hardest of the three teams (at home to Ukraine on Saturday, followed by an away trip to Georgia this Wednesday and a showdown with Italy at Hampden in November.) As Ukraine have not yet been mathematically eliminated, the first of those three games presents obvious difficulties (i.e. a full strength Ukraine side, though Shevchenko’s struggles at Stamford Bridge will be a definite fillip for the Scots) and will demand another exceptional performance (and I’m not sure that, even for all the recent improvements in the Scottish game and the recent results that Scottish sides have been achieving, the talent pool is yet deep enough to reproduce more performances like the two they produced at home and away to France.) Meanwhile, an away trip to Georgia has, in recent years, been the type of fixture that has proved Scotland’s undoing, while Italy are the world champions (albeit a stuttering set of world champions.) Feasibly, Scotland could drop points in all three (though, despite the fears of Kevin McCarra et al, the Georgia game is really one they ought to win), which will almost certainly not be good enough.

By contrast, France have a rather straightforward run-in, with games against the Faroe Islands (away) and Lithuania (home) in the next four days, followed by a trip to Ukraine next month. The first two fixture are pretty much dead rubbers (anyone who says “there are no easy fixtures in international football anymore” is talking bollocks), while France are likely to be taking on an already-eliminated (and, possibly, somewhat weakened and slightly de-motivated) Ukraine next month, so one would expect a maximum nine points and passage to Euro 2008. If either of the two big guns ought to be concerned, it should probably be the Azzurri, who ought to beat Georgia at home in their next match (and, indeed, the Faroes at home in their final match), but who could be facing a potentially decisive trip to Hampden in November. Given that Scotland will probably still be in contention at that point, and that Italian sides are often rattled by the ferocity of some British crowds and the “Anglo-Saxon” style of play, disaster could ensue for Donadoni’s side. My feeling, though, is that they may just squeak a draw and get through that way. Even if Scotland do miss out, though, the disappointment shouldn’t be too overwhelming, or sustained for that long, as their extremely credible performance in the group is likely to have significantly boosted their FIFA/UEFA co-efficient (or something); as a result, they ought to get a much kinder qualifying group for the World Cup in South Africa in 2010 and, quite possibly, for Poland/Ukraine 2012. Coupled with the recent technical and tactical improvements in the Scottish game, there’s a fair chance that we could be seeing the gregarious but good-natured Tartan Army at both of those tournaments.

Well, that’s all for now, everyone. Just enough time to round up some of the other interesting bits from this weekend’s round of fixtures, and make another set of rubbish predictions (because it’s been so long since I last made any):

• Germany to register a comfortable win (2-0, probably) over a mediocre Ireland side (whose long-ball tactics make Sam Allardyce’s sides look positively progressive); having secured their qualification, the Mannschaft will relax and allow the Czechs to secure the point(s) they need.

• Denmark to come roaring back into Group F contention by beating Spain (thus heaping more pressure on La Fúria Roja’s clueless, simian coach.)

• Romania and Holland to play out a draw that does Bulgaria no good.

• Poland to all but secure qualification by beating Kazakhstan at home, and Finland & Portugal to keep on winning (that Portugal-Finland showdown on November 21st looks tasty…)

• Same situation in Group B as in A, with Poland, Finland and Portugal substituted for Greece, Norway and Turkey respectively (their group’s decisive showdown is between Norway and Turkey on November 17th, by the way.)

See you all later,
Liam