'Tis the season start! V: Serie A

Hello again, everyone!

And welcome to the final installment in this little European football mini-series; yes, having finally regained consciousness after my fit of rage yesterday evening (though I’ll admit that every team has been screwed over by/benefited from shambolic refereeing decisions; Fulham were arguably even more hard done by on Saturday), I’m back to preview the upcoming season in Serie A (which, like its Spanish counterpart, starts in six days time.)

After a mixed year of hard knocks (Calciopoli, missing out on hosting Euro 2012) and sparkling triumphs (victory at last year’s World Cup, and Milan’s Champions League triumph in Athens in May), Italian club football looks set to embark upon what the Italian press, at least, are describing as a Phoenix-like rise from the ashes, hailing the promotions of three of Italian club football’s most prestigious names (Juventus, Napoli and Genoa) as marking 2007/08 as a “Super” Serie A season. Juve’s return, in particular, is a remarkable one given their central role (particularly that of the disreputable Luciano Moggi, who inexplicably failed to receive a lifetime ban from calcio) in the Calciopoli scandal and their resultant (deserved) demotion to Serie B accompanied by a points penalty (ultimately reduced on appeal to nine points.) In truth, despite losing Fabio Cannavaro, Emerson, Patrick Vieira and Žlatan Ibrahimovic in the summer of 2006, the squad that remained was far too strong for Serie B (containing as it did the likes of Pavel Nedvěd, Mauro Camoranesi, Alex Del Piero and David Trézéguet) and Juve have made a strong statement of their ambition in the transfer market activity this summer as well. Having worked wonders to keep Parma in Serie A last year, Claudio “Tinkerman” Ranieri has been rewarded with the manager’s job at Juve for the coming season (which became available after Didier Deschamps left the club as a result of disputes with the club’s board, notably general manager Alessio Secco), as well as a substantial treasure chest to bolster the squad; the signings Ranieri has made look similarly impressive (particularly the likes of Jorge Andrade and Ždenek Grygera at the back, Tiago in the centre of midfield and Vincenzo Iaquinta up front, a player who has had a reasonable goal record at Udinese over the past couple of seasons despite playing in a side that isn’t famed for its creativity) and, perhaps more crucially, the club’s established star players have all signed new contracts to keep them at the club. It would be unrealistic to expect Juve to challenge for the title this year, but the squad does look strong and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them qualify for the 2008/09 edition of the Champions League.

In terms of the title, it’s hard to see beyond the two Milanese sides, particularly Inter, who were by some considerable distance the best side in Serie A last year, and who have reinforced an already strong squad with one of Serie A’s best forwards of recent times, David Suazo from Cagliari (a sensible buy considering Adriano’s continuing malaise.) Importantly, they have also bought the excellent Cristian Chivu from Roma, which not only improves their own back line but, more importantly, weakens that of a potential rival. If the new signings click, and if the likes of Štanković and Ibrahimović are as impressive this season as they were last season, Inter should be too strong for everyone else this season. Milan should be their strongest challengers this year, particularly as this year they won’t have to deal with the psychological setback of an eight point penalty this season, and one would expect many of their underperforming stars from last year (in particular the otherwise brilliant Andrea Pirlo) to do better this year. However, concerns understandably remain; for one thing, Milan’s squad remains an ageing one, particularly at the back (the likes of Paolo Maldini, Cafú, Giuseppe Favalli and Serginho are closer to 40 than they are to 30, while even the likes of Alessandro Nesta, Massimo Oddo, Dario Šimić, Clarence Seedorf, Ronaldo and Pippo Inzaghi are all over 30) and Milan’s transfer market activity over the summer (so far only bringing in Brazilian wunderkind Alexandre Pato from Internacional) has done little to rectify that problem. Furthermore, much like Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United, Milan also lack a recognised centre-forward who will score twenty goals a season (something Alberto Gilardino has failed to do in both of his seasons at the San Siro, and which he looks unlikely to do any time soon) which Pato’s arrival will do nothing to change (given that Pato, much like his compatriot and team-mate, Kaká, is more goal creator than goalscorer.) Add to that all the time Milan’s hierarchy have wasted in pursuing Ronaldinho, and one gets the impression that Milan will again fall short. Another outside bet for the Scudetto may be last year’s runners-up Roma (1-0 victors over Inter in the Italian Supercup last night), who, despite the loss of Chivu, have made some astute purchases again this summer (not only buying a more than capable replacement for Chivu in the form of Juan from Bayer Leverkusen, but also at half the price they sold Chivu for; meanwhile, they have also brought in a couple of talented wingers, with Mauro Esposito arriving from Cagliari and the ageing but still effective Ludovic Giuly arriving on a free transfer from Barcelona.) Roma’s main problem, though, will be the same one that has beset them for the last few seasons, namely that their squad is rather thin and still doesn’t cope well when it comes to juggling domestic and European commitments. The continuing speculation over Mancini’s future is unlikely to help their cause, either.

Many observers would expect Inter, Milan, Juve and Roma to qualify quite comfortably for the Champions League (particularly as last year’s Champions League qualifiers, Lazio, haven’t strengthened as much as they would have liked) but what of the UEFA Cup places? One would expect Lazio to gain one of those UEFA Cup slots, even if they haven’t strengthened well enough to qualify for the Champions League again (only Juan Carrizo, arriving from River Plate as a replacement for the retiring Angelo Peruzzi, and Mourad Meghni, the 178th(*) “New Zidane” joining from Bologna, have arrived so far); under Delio Rossi, a compact, organized and spirited team has been forged which should be good enough to qualify for Europe. However, much like their cross-town rivals, Lazio may be undone by their lack of squad depth, while there is also too much of a dependence on Tommaso Rocchi and Goran Pandev for goals (the blunt truth is that the likes of Simone Inzaghi, Igli Tare and Stephen Makinwa just don’t score often enough.) Similarly, Fiorentina should have more than enough quality to qualify for the UEFA Cup this year (particularly given that they won’t have to contend with the somewhat harsh 15 point penalty they had to deal with last year) but are unlikely to do any more than that; the Viola have a number of talented youngsters (a number that was swelled this summer by the arrivals of Arturo Lupoli from Arsenal and Anthony Vanden Borre from Anderlecht) but the loss of Luca Toni to Bayern München is bound to hurt them (a lot of pressure will be put on Adrian Mutu and youngster Giampaolo Pazzini to lead the front line in the same way as Toni, something that I don’t think either player is quite capable of doing.) The arrival of Christian Vieri (a notoriously moody player, and one who is unlikely to encourage unity and team spirit within the squad) also looks like a bit of a gamble. The continuing development of Riccardo Montolivo should be fascinating to watch, though. Elsewhere, the comings and goings at Palermo (OK, they have bought well, bringing in Fabrizio Miccolì from Juve, Giulio Migliaccio from Atalanta and Boško Janković, but how will they cope without long-time playmaker Eugenio Corini, not to mention national team forward David Di Michele?) make their prospects almost impossible to call, as do the infamous trigger-happy tendencies of their chairman, Maurizio Zamparini. It will also be interesting to see how the likes of Sampdoria and Torino do this year; Samp may have lost Fabio Quagliarella (one of last year’s revelations in Serie A), but have brought a number of interesting forwards to the club, notably Vincenzo Montella, on a Bosman from Roma, and Real Madrid bad boy Antonio “Fat Tony” Cassano on loan. If Cassano stays out of trouble, he could be the fantasista Samp (a side that has traditionally been solid but unspectacular) have needed to elevate themselves to the level of genuine European contenders; however, his hair-trigger temperament means that it could all end in disaster. Torino could also be set to greatly improve on a disappointing season last year, in which they only just avoided the drop; the arrivals of both Corini and Di Michele from Palermo could provide the goals that Toro were sorely lacking last year (my hunch is that European football may just be beyond them, though.)

In terms of the relegation positions, Genoa are probably the most likely of the promoted sides to struggle, given that they were arguably the weakest of the three promoted teams, not to mention the fact that they have struggled to strengthen the squad significantly this summer (most of their new arrivals have been youngsters from other sides, including the loan arrival of Marco Borriello from Milan, and the arrival of Matteo Paro from Juventus.) However, Napoli (a team I’ve had a soft spot for ever since this man was fronting Channel 4’s Italian football coverage) should have enough to stay up; it’s difficult to predict how many of their new arrivals will fare in Serie A (the likes of Marek Hamšík, Walter Gargano and Ezequiel Lavezzi, while all talented youngsters, don’t have any experience of Serie A) and goals may be something of a problem, but the side (especially a defence that is marshalled by Fabio Cannavaro’s younger and only slightly less talented brother, Paolo) looks to be solid enough to survive. Reggina, as ever, look set to struggle near the wrong end of the table (particularly given the departure of Rolando Bianchi) but will probably stay up (after all, they have been in this position before and know what it takes to survive; they also had an excellent season last season, and would have finished much higher had it not been for their 11 point penalty.) Livorno (minus talismanic striker Cristiano Lucarelli) could also struggle, while Atalanta and Empoli overachieved last year with relatively modest squads and are unlikely to fare as well this year. However, my tips to join Genoa in Serie B in 2008/09 would be Siena and Cagliari; Siena were rather fortunate to escape the drop on the final day by beating a Lazio side that had nothing to play for, and last year had the motivation of trying to achieve Serie A survival to honour the memory of much-loved and now deceased former chairman Paolo De Luca (the squad still looks weak, particularly with the loss of Cristian Molinaro to Juve, and Andrea Mandorlini will have his work cut out trying to keep them up.) Cagliari, meanwhile, have lost their three most important attacking players: David Suazo (to Inter), Mauro Esposito (to Roma) and Antonio Langella (to Atalanta.) The loss of Suazo looks particularly damaging (given that his goals were possibly the only thing keeping Cagliari afloat over the past couple of seasons), while the new signings don’t convince (a season of suffering therefore beckons for Cagliari’s tifosi.)

OK, that’s the end of the Serie A preview, and indeed the series [column wipes tear from eye and sighs wistfully.] All that remains is to offer up my final set of rubbish predictions for the coming season, so here goes:

• Champions – Internazionale (like Bayern in Germany, they’re just far better than anyone else.)

• Runners-up – Milan (the prospect of Pato, Kaká and Pirlo as a playmaking trio is mouthwatering, but the side still lacks a striker.)

• Champions League spots – Juventus (next year’s title challengers?), Roma (nice starting XI, shame about the squad.)

• UEFA Cup spots – Lazio (solid side with a smattering of talented players, notably Rocchi, Pandev and Ledesma, but last year’s 3rd place finish probably owed as much to who was missing and who was more heavily penalised as their own merits), Fiorentina (might have been Champions League contenders had Toni stayed), Sampdoria (though that still depends on Cassano’s behaviour, not to mention the Coppa Italia outcome.)

• Relegation (in descending order) – Genoa (though I hope I’m wrong), Cagliari (not enough firepower), Siena (not enough quality full stop.)

Well, time to bid you all Adieu for now. Hope it’s been as much fun for you reading these previews as it has been for me writing them, and enjoy the football this season.

Liam

(*) – Not an official statistic.